As Tesla prepares to report its Q3 2025 earnings on October 22, the electric vehicle maker faces heightened scrutiny over whether it can meet Wall Street’s expectations. Wolfe Research estimates the company could deliver between 465,000 and 470,000 units in Q3, representing a 22% increase from Q2. This would exceed the Wall Street consensus of 448,000 units tracked by FactSet.
Tesla’s Q3 delivery projections of up to 470,000 units could surpass Wall Street’s 448,000 consensus estimate by nearly 5%.
The projected numbers would also top last year’s Q3 performance, when Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles. UBS expects 470,000 vehicles produced during the quarter, showing strong production capacity. If these projections prove accurate, Tesla will surpass consensus expectations of 445,000 units.
Consumer demand got a surge from buyers rushing to purchase before the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired. This “pull forward” effect accelerated sales as customers took advantage of the incentive before it ended. The tax credit had been available since 2009, marking the first time the program faces discontinuation.
China’s market performance exceeded earlier forecasts. Wolfe Research now estimates 165,000 to 170,000 deliveries in China for Q3, approximately 10,000 more than previous projections. This strong showing in China contributes greatly to Tesla’s overall global numbers. The Model Y remains highly searched in China despite increasing competition from domestic manufacturers.
The company completed an intensive factory overhaul earlier in 2025 to retool production for the new Model Y. However, the newly launched Model Y L doesn’t yet contribute meaningfully to Q3 delivery figures. The revamped model features updated design elements, improved comfort, and new technology. Recent market conditions show that Tesla’s resale values have become increasingly challenging, with the company’s models depreciating twice as fast as Ford Mustangs.
Tesla’s valuation remains a hot topic among analysts. The stock trades at 237 times earnings, compared to Toyota’s 10 times and Ford’s 6 times. The median expected price-to-earnings ratio for the next 12 months sits at 175 times.
TipRanks shows a consensus Hold rating with an average price target of $341.10, suggesting potential 20% downside from current levels. Recent analyst activity includes six Buy rating reiterations, with four analysts raising their price targets. The debate continues over whether Tesla should be valued as an automaker or technology company. Analysts are closely monitoring the upcoming earnings announcement as market sentiment remains heavily influenced by earnings outcomes.