As Tesla prepares to announce its third-quarter delivery numbers in early October, Wall Street analysts have sharply raised their expectations for the electric carmaker’s performance. Major investment firms now predict Tesla will deliver between 461,500 and 475,000 vehicles for the quarter, well above the earlier consensus of 445,000 units.
Wolfe Research expects deliveries between 465,000 and 470,000 units, while UBS recently increased its target from 431,000 to 475,000 vehicles. Deutsche Bank forecasts 461,500 deliveries. These projections represent a potential 22% jump from Tesla’s second-quarter performance. The current Wall Street consensus sits at 448,000 units, up from about 430,000 in July and August, according to FactSet data. One analyst described the third quarter as “poised to be a strong quarter.”
China’s contribution looks particularly strong, with analysts expecting 165,000 to 170,000 deliveries from the region. That’s about 10,000 units higher than previous estimates. These figures don’t include Tesla’s newly launched Model Y L variant. The U.S. market also shows accelerating demand patterns.
The approaching expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit at September’s end appears to be driving American buyers to speed up their purchases. Analysts worry this rush might explain the volume increases rather than genuine demand growth. The policy change has clearly influenced when consumers decide to buy their vehicles.
While Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries should increase 22% from the previous quarter, year-over-year performance will likely remain flat. The sequential improvement suggests Tesla’s operations are gaining momentum despite annual comparison concerns. European sales experienced a significant surge in the final weeks of Q3, adding to the stronger-than-expected delivery performance. However, August data had shown a 23% decline in Tesla’s year-over-year EV registrations across European markets.
Tesla’s valuation continues to puzzle traditional market observers. The company trades at 237 times earnings, with analysts expecting that ratio to fall to 175 times over the next year. Toyota trades at just 10 times earnings, while Ford sits at 6 times. These numbers suggest investors view Tesla as more than just a car company.
Tesla’s stock recently gained for seven straight trading days, though disappointing European sales data caused temporary volatility. The company will release its official delivery numbers on Wednesday or Thursday after September 29, when investors will learn whether these optimistic projections prove accurate.