How did Tesla shatter expectations in the third quarter of 2025? The electric vehicle maker delivered 497,099 vehicles during the period, crushing analyst predictions of roughly 443,000 units by more than 54,000 vehicles. This marked the highest quarterly delivery volume in Tesla’s history.
The timing wasn’t accidental. Customers rushed to purchase vehicles before the federal EV tax credit expired on September 30, 2025. The $7,500 incentive created urgency among buyers, leading to a significant end-of-quarter spike. This “push forward effect” temporarily boosted sales as consumers and those leasing vehicles sought to capture the credit before it disappeared. Notably, many of these customers will need to program a Tesla key card for their new vehicles, which typically requires an existing authorized key.
The $7,500 federal EV tax credit expiration on September 30, 2025 triggered a massive surge in customer purchases before the deadline.
Model 3 and Model Y dominated deliveries, accounting for approximately 481,000 units. Meanwhile, combined deliveries of Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck reached about 16,000 units. Tesla produced over 447,000 vehicles during the quarter, showing strong fulfillment rates compared to actual deliveries.
Investors responded positively to the news. Tesla’s market capitalization climbed to approximately $1.47 trillion, with stock prices closing around $444.72 per share. Analysts from firms like Cantor Fitzgerald and Benchmark maintained bullish outlooks, issuing “Overweight” or “Buy” ratings with price targets exceeding $350 and $475, respectively.
Beyond vehicles, Tesla’s energy storage business achieved remarkable growth. The company deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in Q3 2025, surpassing the previous quarterly record and beating analyst estimates of 10.9 to 11.5 GWh. Year-to-date deployments already exceeded all of 2024’s total. Energy storage revenue is projected to reach over $12 billion for the year, representing roughly 15% of Tesla’s total revenue. The battery storage segment emerged as the company’s fastest growing area, signaling Tesla’s expanding focus beyond pure vehicle sales.
These results come after challenging times. Tesla experienced its first annual sales decline in 2024, with deliveries dropping 1% to 1.79 million units. The first half of 2025 showed a steeper 13% year-over-year decline to 720,803 vehicles. The Q3 surge reversed this downward trend, though questions remain about sustaining momentum without the tax credit incentive going forward.